Real Clear Politics' final polling average, Trump And The Testosterone Takeover Of 2016. Who Is Reince Priebus, Trump's New Chief Of Staff? "Lots of data to be examined, lots of hard questions to ask and answer.". Check back on the home page to see how the most recent polls are shaking out. Which Republican candidate is Hillary Clinton most correlated with based on county voting patterns? Personally, I’m also curious if John Oliver’s Trump video has any impact on voter sentiment tomorrow. // ]]> Shortly after the Democratic Presidential debate, we closed both polls. (function () { var opst = document.createElement('script'); var os_host = document.location.protocol == "https:" ? RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Once again showing that the polls here are a leading indicator of what happens happens weeks later in mainstream media polls. On the Democratic side, 2016election.com has always shown Bernie Sanders above Hillary Clinton, and just recently all of the major news outlets started announcing that he is leading Clinton in many of the early states. To be clear, these are all possibilities — pollsters will have plenty of work to do to figure out what they didn't capture this year. On the eve of the 2016 election, Nate Silver's 538 site gave Clinton a 71% chance of winning the presidency. Analysis. Come 2018 and 2020, many Americans will likely find themselves taking poll numbers with an extra grain of salt or three. fjs = d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0], (212) 419-8286 The Day in Polls Donald Trump Hillary Clinton 2016 Presidential Election Welcome to The Day in Polls. State Polling Averages. // ]]> Trump made some pretty interesting comments about abortion, which seem to be impacting polling numbers. "https:" : "http:"; opst.type = 'text/javascript'; opst.async = true; opst.src = os_host + '//' + 'www.opinionstage.com/polls/2287152/embed.js'; (document.getElementsByTagName('head')[0] || document.getElementsByTagName('body')[0]).appendChild(opst); }()); Hillary seems to have this thing wrapped up, but don’t tell that to the 1,700+ people who voted in our poll. Find the latest presidential election news stories, photos and videos on NBCNews.com. // ]]> We decided to close both the Republican and Democratic polls today, based entirely on Donald Trump’s audacious recommendation that we stop allowing any Muslims from entering the country. Share. Following the New Hampshire primaries, we thought it would be interesting to reset the polls – specifically to see if Kasich gets a bump from his 2nd place finish. (function () { var opst = document.createElement('script'); var os_host = document.location.protocol == "https:" ? But then, in 2008, the results were remarkably close, only a few tenths of a point away from the final poling average. 'https://' : 'http://'), (function () { var opst = document.createElement('script'); var os_host = document.location.protocol == "https:" ? Why 2016 election polls missed their mark By Andrew Mercer , Claudia Deane and Kyley McGeeney Supporters of presidential candidate Hillary Clinton watch televised coverage of the U.S. presidential election at Comet Tavern in the Capitol Hill neighborhood of Seattle on Nov. 8. "Way too many people tell you they're going to vote," Deane said. polls? Still, there's reason to be skeptical that this really threw off polls much. Polls-plus forecast. // ]]> The morning after Super Tuesday, Trump seems to be climbing again – rebounding from a short surge from Rubio. The national polls weren't that off — they did predict more people would vote for Clinton. See the latest estimates and poll results at HuffPost Pollster. "https:" : "http:"; opst.type = 'text/javascript'; opst.async = true; opst.src = os_host + '//' + 'www.opinionstage.com/polls/2282997/embed.js'; (document.getElementsByTagName('head')[0] || document.getElementsByTagName('body')[0]).appendChild(opst); }()); "And that appears key to Trump support.". Updated Nov. 9, 2016. It’s only 250 people, and we’ve seen those polls swing significantly over a few hours – so check back later tonight to see if Rubio is still in the lead. You can vote on the new polls back on the home page. (function () { var opst = document.createElement('script'); var os_host = document.location.protocol == "https:" ? (function () { var opst = document.createElement('script'); var os_host = document.location.protocol == "https:" ? You can see Carly Fiorina was beating trump during the debate. Updated Nov. 8, 2016. Although, voting for these polls opened before some Republican candidates had declared their candidacy. After the latest GOP debate, Trump still seems to be holding strong – getting twice as many votes as Rubio. // ]]> These polls were closed right before the 1st Republican Debate so that we could get a good sense of where the candidates stand before and after the debate. Check back in a few days to see if the Iowa results shake any of the polls up. // ]]> //